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Oil Spill Trajectory Model Top 30 Questions
Question 1 - What are the Australian national response arrangements for oil spills?
Since October 1973 Australia has had in place a pre-planned national strategy to respond to marine spills. The original strategy dealt only with oil spills but in April 1998 the strategy was extended to deal with the response to maritime chemical spills in Australian waters. The strategy is now known as the National Plan to Combat Pollution of the Sea by Oil and other Noxious and Hazardous Substances (National Plan). AMSA is the managing agency for the National Plan and provides a number of support systems, including the Oil Spill Trajectory Model.
Click here for further details on the National Plan arrangements.
Question 2 - How are spill models used in response planning and operation?
When an oil spill occurs at sea, the first and primary concern of response planners is to determine where the oil is likely to go? That is, what is the slick direction, and speed of movement and what are the weathering and spreading characteristics of the oil under the influence of prevailing currents and weather conditions? In near-shore marine environments, the tracking of oil spills likely to impact the shoreline is of prime importance for effective planning and deployment of oil spill response personnel and equipment to protect environmentally sensitive areas.
Spill models provide essential information to responders. The following questions are examples of questions that responders may ask:
- will the slick move into environmentally sensitive areas or my port or harbour?
- what shorelines are likely to be impacted by the oil spill?
- how long will before the slick weathers?
- where do we place the vessel (casualty) so, if oil leaks, it will have minimal impact on ecologically sensitive resources?
- if we placed booms at these locations or sprayed dispersant on the slicks, how much oil would be removed, and where would the remainder of the oil move too?
Question 3 - What makes an effective spill model for Australia?
An oil spill trajectory model provides an essential decision support system to response planners but must meet a number of requirements to be of use to emergency responders. To be an effective national spill model, the system must:
- cover all Australian waters both near shore and off-shore deep water;
- have accurate spill predictions for both forecasting and hind-casting;
- provide rapid output of results regardless of spill geographic location;
- have the ability to adjust data inputs considering changing conditions and field observations;
- be able to be used in remote field locations or effective transmission of model outputs to field operators; and
- have a user friendly software interface that provides the generation of graphical/pictorial model outputs.
Question 4 - What is OSTM?
OSTM stands for Oil Spill Trajectory Model, and refers to the spill model used in Australia by the National Plan. The system provides for the access and visualisation of near real time meteorological and oceanographic (met-ocean) data for over 47 million square kilometres of the world oceans (Figure 1). The main use of this met-ocean data under OSTM is to provide oil spill drift, trajectory, impact and weathering modelling services for all Australian waters to National Plan stakeholders. OSTM provides responders with a prediction of the likely movement of oil spills under the influence of ocean currents, tides and winds.
Figure 1 - Boundaries of the Australian Search and Rescue Region, EEZ and Geostrophic Current Modelling Capability
Question 5 - What are the main features of OSTM?
The features of OSTM allow the operator to:
- specify spill scenarios anywhere in Australian waters;
- display spill trajectories over time intervals selected by the user;
- grid any area within the geographic location for model operation;
- allow allocation/editing of foreshore type for oil/shoreline interaction;
- provide manual input or automatic import of wind speed/direction, both spatial wind or point wind datasets;
- produce an animation of currents (vector direction/strength) over time period;
- enter and edit oil types in the oil library;
- enter sea temperatures for improved oil weathering predictions;
- display and output oil slick properties as they change for individual slicks;
- interrogate current vectors produced in HYDROMAP and edit if necessary; and
- display natural resources impacted by the oil and measure extent of shorelines impacted by oil.
A typical output from OSTM of a hypothetical oil spill in Shark Bay, Western Australia, is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 - Example of Hypothetical Spill Model.
OSTM Animation Overlaid onto Landsat Image for Shark Bay WA showing coastline impact zones 4 days after spill commencement.
Question 6 - What does OSTM provide?
OSTM provides:
- prediction of weathering and surface/sub surface transport of oil slicks;
- prediction of the probability of key coastal/marine areas being impacted from a given site;
- plotting of oil spill thickness contours as they spread and oil mass balances in tables, charts or graphics;
- backtracking of the model to determine the likely spill release position;
- selection of single, continuous or multiple releases of oil;
- updating of predictions with overflight data at spill scene;
- incorporation of boom-oil interaction;
- plotting of spill dispersant application zones and modelling effects of dispersant use on drifting slicks;
- performance of risk assessments for important shorelines and environmental resources;
- accounting for floating or fixed sea ice for Antarctic waters;
- use of NOAA’s ADIOS extensive oil database of over 1,000 oils and fuels for weathering calculations; and
- incorporation of chemical/physical properties of oils produced and imported into Australia.
The oil spill model predicts oil trajectories for either instantaneous or continuous release spills and includes algorithms for spreading, evaporation, emulsification, entrainment, oil-shoreline interaction and oil-ice interaction. The oil's distribution and mass balance are predicted for the type of oil spilled. Model predictions can be refined with observed oil slick locations from surveillance operations. Floating barriers may also be added to implement simple booming strategies at selected locations, and the application of dispersant may be simulated to determine oil removal scenarios.
Question 7 - How do I request a model run?
There are a number of ways in which OSTM predictions can be requested by National Plan stakeholders. An OSTM request proforma has been placed on the AMSA Internet web site to allow Port, State, Territory and industry organisations to access and complete the necessary information to run the model for any incident. This form can be completed and the information provided verbally, faxed or emailed to AMSA at OSTM@amsa.gov.au
The form can be printed, completed and faxed to +61 2 6279 5076 for immediate attention during an incident. After hours fax requests to be sent to +61 2 6230 6868.
After sending the request, receipt should be confirmed by telephoning 02 6279 5044 during office hours or after hours to the AMSA Rescue Coordination Centre (Emergency Response Division ) on 02 6230 6811, or for free call within Australia: 1800 641 792.
Question 8 - How do I get a copy of the OSTM request proforma?
The location of the OSTM proforma and instructions is at http://www.amsa.gov.au/Marine_Environment_Protection/National_plan/General_Information/Oil_Spill_Trajectory_Model/Oil_
Spill_Trajectory_Model_Request_Proforma.asp
There is also a hard copy of the proforma in Appendix 8 of the National Marine Oil Spill Contingency Plan. This plan is available in hardcopy to all National Plan Stakeholders or on the web at http://www.amsa.gov.au/Marine_Environment_Protection/National_Plan/Contingency_Plans_and_Management/Oil_Spill_
Contingency_Plan.asp
Question 9 - What are the main components of OSTM?
The main components of OSTM are two software packages: HYDROMAP (hydrodynamic model), and OILMAP (spill trajectory and oil weathering model). A range of data feeds and information is required to operate this software. The main data feeds and information outputs from OSTM are shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3 - Main Components of OSTM
Question 10 - What is HYDROMAP and what does it do?
The main requirement of any spill model is to accurately determine water current vectors over the area and time period of interest.
HYDROMAP is a predictive coastal hydrodynamic circulation model that simulates the flow of water currents within a specified region. On the continental shelf of Australia the major current-forcing mechanisms are tidal and meteorological i.e. wind. In deeper waters the influence of tides diminishes and the dominant current forcing mechanisms are thermodynamic and meteorological.
The OSTM software determines currents due to the forcing action of astronomical tides, wind stress and bottom friction. It also allows the import and addition of geostrophic currents in deeper water environments where thermal-haline currents dominate (see FAQ 19). The output from HYDROMAP of gridded time steps of current vectors are exported to use within OILMAP.
An example of these gridded current vectors of direction and speed are shown in Figure 4. This example shows the vectors of current at an interval in the model for Western Port, Victoria during an ebb tide. The yellow arrow in the key box shows relative size of 2 knots.
Figure 4 - Example of Current Vectors produced by HYDROMAP for Western Port, Victoria
HYDROMAP uses a step-wise gridding system with up to six levels of resolution. Each level doubles the resolution and provides increased current modelling capability in restricted waters, complex bays, estuaries and harbours. An example of nested grids to 4 levels of resolution selected for a passage between two islands in the Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia, is shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5 - Example Nested Grids Used in HYDROMAP
Question 11 - Who developed the HYDROMAP and OILMAP software?
The main OSTM software system components (HYDROMAP and OILMAP) have been provided by the company Asia Pacific Applied Science Associates (APASA). The parent company, Applied Science Associates (ASA), is the largest global commercial provider of spill trajectory modelling software. The software provides rapid, accurate and user-friendly information on oil movement, i.e. oil spill direction, speed, weathering, fate and spreading characteristics.
Combined with the currents generated by HYDROMAP for the region of interest, OILMAP provides the ability to predict oil impacts on shorelines and quantitative estimation of oil breakdown and weathering using up-to-date and validated algorithms.
Question 12 - What are the major updates and recent changes to OSTM?
The National Plan Oil Spill Trajectory Model (OSTM) was launched in the year 2000. Since that time continued reassessment of its operational performance and reliability has been undertaken. Where deficiencies in timeliness, data or software were found, actions were undertaken by AMSA to address these issues.
During 2000-2005 the following improvements to OSTM were made:
- high definition coastline vector datasets were added for mainland Australia and offshore territories;
- the interface of OSTM with Australian Hydrographic Office (AHO) raster based nautical charts (GeoTiff format) was enabled;
- S57 ENC chart data from AHO for Queensland was incorporated;
- digital bathymetry data has been increased significantly in coverage and resolution with that previously available (250m gridded Australia wide);
- evaluation and upgrade of the hydrodynamic model to HYDROMAP was undertaken;
- upgrades of the OILMAP software were made to provide additional data manipulation, data visualisation and model output features;
- interface of the spill model output of OSTM with the Oil Spill Response Atlas (OSRA) GIS system was enabled leading to improved delivery of information to National Plan stakeholders;
- casual staff were employed to digitise and update underlying operational datasets (bathymetry and detailed coastlines);
- efficiency testing of the model was undertaken using a ground truth exercise in Moreton Bay, Queensland;
- the ability to include large-scale currents measured by satellites supplied by CSIRO was implemented;
- use of detailed spatial wind data provided by BoMet for entire region (3 day forecast data) was enabled;
- tools were developed to integrate NetCDF wind and current data directly from the data providers web site via FTP;
- the ability to view and animate spatial wind files was implemented; and
- an additional tool was developed to allow a number of individual current and wind files to be added to generate predictions over longer time periods.
Question 13 - Are environmental datasets in OSTM regularly updated?
Yes. Regular updates are made to the following fundamental datasets of OSTM:
- high resolution bathymetric data sets;
- tidal amplitudes and phase constants;
- altimeter data from the Topex-Poseidon satellite (TPOX5.1);
- high resolution coastline datasets, and
- nautical charts and satellite imagery as underlays for display of model outputs.
Question 14 - How important is bathymetry data to spill modeling?
Bathymetry is essentially the “shape of the sea-floor” or “depth of sea” data. HYDROMAP utilises gridded digital bathymetry to model the shape and elevation of the sea floor.
In tests undertaken by AMSA and APASA in OSTM ground-truth exercises it was found that accurate bathymetry is the main influence on current directions in shallow waters in the test area of Moreton Bay, QLD (AMSA 2003). Channelling of flows during ebbing and flooding tides as well as bottom friction on water is influenced by sea floor contours.
Bathymetry in shallow waters needs to be sufficiently accurate to be able to resolve the complex shallow areas like shipping channels, scoured bays, reefs and sandbanks.
HYDROMAP allows the model grids of different resolution (nestled grids) to be populated from various forms of bathymetry data by the operator, for example, random or regular depth readings in XYZ ASCII and DA format. This data can be checked, verified or modified by the operator for individual or multiple cells.
Nautical charts in both GeoTiff and ENC formats can be used as underlays to compare and modify bathymetry data if higher resolution is required or grid cells are not fully populated.
Question 15 - What bathymetry datasets are available in OSTM?
Two two main datasets are supplied with the OSTM software:
- ETOPO 5 – world wide gridded data set of depths of 5 minute latitude spacing; and
- ETOPO 2 – world wide gridded data set of depths of 2 minute latitude spacing.
AMSA has acquired the global 1-minute data set from the British Oceanographic Centre part of the General Bathymetry Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). This data from a proprietary format can be extracted to Longitude, Latitude and Depth (XYZ) for any area required for use in HYDROMAP.
Other digital bathymetry acquired by AMSA include:
- regional data at 30 second arc from Geoscience Australia;
- Australia-wide data in XYZ format at 250m cell size from Geoscience Australia and the National Oceans Office;
- high resolution embedded data digitised by AMSA personnel from nautical charts produced by the Australian Hydrographic Office; and
- port hydrography survey data.
An example of the improvement in bathymetry datasets in OSTM is shown in Figure 6, where a comparison is shown of the new 250m bathymetry data for islands in the Torres Straits.
Figure 6 - Comparison of new bathymetry with old dataset
Question 16 - How important is accurate coastline data for OSTM?
To accurately determine the land/water interface for OSTM a detailed and accurate fine resolution digital coastline is required. This shoreline data can be inserted in to the model using various major GIS data formats.
AMSA has acquired the following digital coastlines for use in OSTM:
- global coastline (scale 1:1 million);
- Pacific and regional coastlines (various scales);
- Geoscience Australia/AUSLIG Australian mainland GeoCoast (100K);
- state coastline (various scales provided 10-50K);
- world coral reef outlines (REEFBASE); and
- data digitised by AMSA personnel and contractors.
With detailed shorelines and accurate bathymetry OSTM operators can now resolve coastal inlets, the flow-throughs of narrow passages between islands and model in detail complex systems like harbours and ports. In Figure 7 an example is shown of the comparison between the old and new shoreline for the Dampier region of Western Australia.
Figure 7 - Improved Coastline data in Port Dampier, Western Australia
Question 17 - How does wind information affect OSTM’s ability to predict spill movement?
Accurate wind information, both present and predicted, is important for both modelling the speed and direction of water currents in HYDROMAP. Wind also influences the movement of the oil slicks on the water surface, this is modelled in the OILMAP software. Weather patterns can change on both synoptic (1-3 days) and seasonal scales. High and low pressure systems cause the wind to blow in different directions and at different speeds. Over the ocean this has an effect on the currents.
Wind exerts a force (or stress) on the ocean surface proportional to the square of the wind speed. This not only produces waves but also injects momentum into the surface layer of the sea. The direction of this momentum is not in the same direction as the wind but rather at an angle to it because of the coriolis force due to the earth’s rotation. The coriolis force acts at right angles (90o) to the ocean current (or wind) direction and to the right in northern hemisphere and to the left in the southern hemisphere. Wind induced effects on surface currents is around 2-3 % of the wind speed.
In shallow continental shelf waters, where the water column has much less mass than in deep-ocean, wind stress can generate substantial currents in a day or so. As high and low weather fronts move across the water surface constant changes in speed and direction of currents and floating objects can result.
Wind driven continental shelf waves have been identified as a primary source of current variability in practically all Australian continental shelf waters such as the Great Barrier Reef (Cahill and Middleton 1993). Hence the importance of local accurate spatial (gridded) wind speed and direction predictions for OSTM.
Oil slick movement is affected by wind speed and direction. Depending upon the oil type and thickness wind induced effects can be between 2-3% of the wind speed.
Caution: Wind direction is given in the direction FROM which the wind is blowing and water currents are given in a direction TOWARD which it is flowing. Therefore a northerly wind and a southerly current are moving in the same direction.
Question 18 - Where does AMSA get accurate predictive wind data?
The main source of wind data is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoMet) from its Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) around the Australian coast and offshore islands and territories as well as its atmospheric computer models.
HYDROMAP has the ability to automatically extract gridded wind fields from the BoMet atmospheric models via the web site on FTP. This includes the Global atmospheric model (GASP) and Local atmospheric model (LAPS).
AMSA has access to the GASP model providing output as a global dataset at a spatial resolution of 1 degree and 3 hour time steps over a 96 hour period. The LAPS model output is a dataset that covers the area 65.0 degrees to 184.625 degrees East and 17.0 degrees North to 65.0 degrees South at a spatial resolution of 0.375 degrees and a time step of 1 hour over a 72 hour period (Figure 8).
AMSA primarily will access sea surface wind velocities from BoMet atmospheric models via the internet (NetCDF format), extract these for the region of interest and visualise the data in the software. Wind velocity records can also be accessed from the BoMet as logged by local coastal weathering monitoring stations via the internet. AMSA can also access wind predictions provided by BoMet duty weather forecasters by telephone.
Caution: While predictive weather models are improving year-by-year, the best results are still obtained by accessing actual wind measured on site or readings logged from nearby automatic weather stations (AWS). Weather fronts may slow or speed up, forecast winds may not eventuate or intensify. The OSTM operator will ensure that any forecast wind information is constantly checked with wind monitoring on-site.
Figure 8 - An example of the BoMet spatial wind data set used in OILMAP
Question 19 - What are geostrophic currents and why are they used in OSTM?
Ocean circulation currents are very variable, they are driven by wind, changes in temperature (thermodynamics) and salinity. The ocean currents may be very slow e.g. 0.01 m/s (0.02 knots) in open water; or very fast as in the Gulf Stream e.g. 1.0 m/s (approx 2 knots).
A major advantage of the new OSTM system is that it allows the operator to combine external ocean current data with the predicted tidal and wind driven currents. This allows the visualisation, animation and use of large-scale offshore oceanic currents, associated fronts and eddies eg East Australia Current (EAC), Leeuwin Current and Indonesian Throughflow.
It is essential that the effects of geostrophic oceanic currents are used in spill trajectory models. This is demonstrated by the EAC.
The EAC is the largest current known in Australian waters. Its massive surface stream varies with time and location and generally runs towards Australia between the Coral and Tasman seas, fed by the South Equatorial current. It hugs the continental shelf as it flows southward. With currents up to five knots it moves up to 30 million cubic metres of water per second with strong influences over 100 kilometres wide and sometimes to 500m depth. It frequently generates ocean eddies (gyres) that can be 200 kilometres across and last up to one year. The gyres mainly rotate in an anti-clockwise direction with currents up to four knots at the edge. The EAC may spin-off small clockwise rotating “cold cores” which create northward flowing currents. It can also be slowed or reversed by southerly winds close to shore and reverse currents can exist next to each other (CSIRO 2000).
European and US/French altimeter satellites are constantly measuring the surface topography of the oceans to determine sea-level variations. In effect the altimeter is measuring the hills and valleys of the ocean surface to an accuracy of 5 cm. These variations in height are related to eddies and currents just as atmospheric high and low pressure systems drive winds. Currents tend to follow contours of sea-surface elevation and the slope created by different water heights gives the strength to the current. The total surface relief of the ocean not counting waves or tides is only about 1.5 metres but this is enough to drive ocean currents.
Satellite altimeter data collection, synthesis and predictions is a very complex technology but essentially AMSA receives a file from CSIRO that has a calculated current vector providing the speed and direction of water movement at a given location. An example of the geostrophic currents predicted by CSIRO is shown at Figure 9.
Figure 9 - Example of the CSIRO geostrophic currents for North East Australian Coast
Question 20 - How important are tidal effects to OSTM?
They are very important in modelling currents. Coastal tide patterns, heights and timing are influenced by the movement of the moon and sun, as well as local sea floor shape and extent of continental shelf. The dominant tidal pattern in most of the world’s oceans is two tidal cycles per day i.e. two high tides and two lows per day.
Australia has significant variation in tidal ranges (Figure 10) and patterns. For the narrow continental shelf on the east coast near New South Wales tidal ranges are much the same as deep ocean, i.e. around 2 metres. For the wide continental shelf in the North West of Australia or Mackay in Queensland spring tidal ranges can exceed 10 metres. In offshore Mackay in the complex coral reef systems tidal currents in channels can reach 8 knots.
Figure 10 - Shows the ranges of tides around the Australian coast
Source National Tidal Facility at http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/
The amplitude and phase of tidal constituents are used to calculate sea heights over time within the region of interest. These changes in sea height are used to calculate the propagation of tidal currents through the model region.
Tidal heights at the open boundaries of the model are calculated for real times using Schwiderski global tidal constituents (Schwiderski, 1983). This dataset in HYDROMAP provides a worldwide estimate of the nine dominant tidal constituents at a horizontal scale of 1 degree.
Another option allows Topex Poseidon satellite-derived data (TPXO5.1) to be imported. This dataset in OSTM allows the use of eight dominant tidal constituents at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree globally between latitudes of 85.750S and 81.750N.
The software also allows the operator to manually enter or edit the amplitude and phase for eight of the major tidal constituents for individual cells.
Question 21 - Does OSTM use ocean circulation currents in its predictions?
OSTM uses near real time satellite-derived current data in offshore regions. These large scale ocean circulations along with associated eddies and fronts are calculated by the CSIRO Marine Division and provided to AMSA in a gridded NetCDF file format of current vectors.
Individual files can be viewed and added together to use within the model or animated for visualisation of the ocean current trends in the region of interest.
The CSIRO geostrophic file covers a region from 100N 570E to 600S 1850E at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees. These large-scale geostrophic currents are usually only accessed and used in OSTM when modelling in water depths exceeding 200m.
Question 22 - Can we track mystery spills to their source using OSTM?
Yes, OILMAP can also be run in the Receptor Mode, which is essentially running the model backwards in time. This provides the ability to backtrack ‘mystery’ oil slicks that may appear on coastlines or calculate the time of impact of a spill on a particular area of slicks at sea.
OSTM outputs have been provided in a number of spill incidents over the past few years and also for operational planning purposes during groundings and other marine incidents. The OSTM system has been used in a number of training exercises as well as investigations and prosecutions for oil, chemical and garbage incidents in recent years. There is an increasing use of OSTM to back-track “mystery” spills to their source.
In one incident a quantity of bunker fuel oil was found washed up near a seal and penguin colony in Victoria, most likely illegally dumped from a passing ship. Over 200 penguins and 100 birds were impacted. Using OSTM, the mystery spill was backtracked to the time and location within the shipping lane and narrowed down significantly the vessels to be investigated and sampled.
Another example is shown in Figure 11. This OSTM run was undertaken for a mystery spill in Corio Bay Victoria. Using recorded winds and modelled current streams, the spill was tracked back to a local facility.
Figure 11- Example of Reverse Trajectory, Corio Bay, Victoria
Question 23 - Is OSTM used in contingency planning?
Yes. The Stochastic Mode is forward looking and is mostly used for contingency planning and provides multiple spill trajectories over time eg annual/seasonal/monthly currents and winds for a region. It provides a probability distribution of the likely movement and shorelines impacted for selected locations. This tool allows planners to determine the most vulnerable areas at risk from oil spills within their jurisdiction and determine effective response strategies and equipment requirements to protect those resources from possible spills.
Question 24 - From where in Australia is OSTM operated?
The OSTM system is based at AMSA’s head office in Canberra with a number of personnel trained to provide 24 hour support to the National Plan.
It is important to note that continuous updates of model predictions are often required. Regular and accurate updates of local wind speed and direction as well as operational intelligence help refine the scenario, thereby improving the modelling of slick trajectories and likely impact zones.
Question 25 - Can OSTM be operated in the field or at my Incident Control Centre?
If required, OSTM can also be run on site during spill incidents if required by National Response Team (NRT) personnel. A number of laptop computers and software licenses have been made available for AMSA staff to provide on-site OSTM services during spill incidents.
This mobility of system and platform provides the ability to re-run the model with regular updates from surveillance flights and field observations of oil discharges, floating slick locations, and quantities of oil at sea. OSTM provides the ability to instantaneously modify the spill scenario based on overflight information by adding GIS polygons that represent oil observations. This may also be implemented by importing observations based on remotely sensed data or GPS locations.
Being on-site allows greater interaction with response planners and analysis of OSTM results as well exploring the consequences of oil slick movements and fate with the changing priorities of the response.
Question 26 - What are the outputs provide by OSTM?
The output from OSTM can be provided to the requesting organisation: verbally over the telephone; by hardcopy and facsimile (fax); or by email attachment in a compressed format to an individual or incident control centre (ICC). It is preferred that requesting organisations provide an email address as the ability to use the full extent of data by the user is enhanced considerably and avoids fax system overload in the ICC during an emergency.
Tools have been developed by AMSA and provided to all States and the NT in the Oil Spill Response Atlas (OSRA) to automate the import of the email attachment and overlay of the trajectory model in the OSRA GIS on site or in the ICC. This allows the animation and visualisation of the spill/slick movement and more accurate geo-referencing. Other information can be overlayed to provide likely resource impacts during the incident. An example of this integration of OSTM output with OSRA for an incident near the port of Cairns is provided in Figure 12.
Spill movement and impact zones can be provided in the following formats:
- animation files (AVI format and compressed);
- screen captures in JPEG format;
- PowerPoint slides in sequence;
- Dbase file for importing into the Oil Spill Response Atlas GIS; and
- faxed printouts (not the preferred option as many outputs are in colour).
Figure 12 - Example of OSTM output viewed in OSRA GIS
Question 27 - Have OSTM predictions been tested?
Yes. In June 2003 a ground-truthing exercise was carried out on Moreton Bay, QLD. The aim and objectives of exercise “Ground Truth” were to:
- test the reliability and accuracy of the existing OSTM predictions against the actual drift of floating objects, under controlled conditions in the field; and
- compare the predictions of currents provided by GCOM3D and HYDROMAP hydrodynamic models with actual current/drift observations.
The OSTM predictions were compared to the changing geographic positions of drifting objects including floating mats and satellite-tracking buoys deployed at sea. The timing and drift locations, wind and weather were closely monitored during the exercise over two days at two locations in the Bay.
The position of floating mats and buoys were regularly monitored by AMSA and Maritime Safety Queensland (MSQ) personnel using handheld GPS units. The logged geographic positions of the floating mats and buoys were compared on a GIS with predicted trajectories determined by GCOM3D and HYDROMAP, in combination with OILMAP (Figure 13).
The results of the exercise showed that both spill hydrodynamic models predicted similar current vectors and patterns for the Bay and similar trajectories for a simulated “oil spill”. These predictions from GCOM3D and HYDROMAP generally matched the observed movements of the floating objects during the exercise.
Small differences in the timing and movement of the different objects was attributed to orientation of the floating objects in/on the water surface. That is, different wind profiles of the objects causing “sailing” and “leeway effects” rather than water current drag, the dominant effect on the movement of thin film oil spills.
The exercise also demonstrated the critical nature of the underlying data within the models i.e. high resolution bathymetry and accurate tidal data. The performance of both models was vastly superior when detailed high resolution digital bathymetry was obtained for Moreton Bay from MSQ. As the predicted tides varied from actual observed times, this affected the degree and timing of the reversal of directions of the predicted trajectories.
In summary, the exercise showed that in this case both software models predicted similar paths and speeds of a simulated ‘oil spill’, and that both have similar underlying predictive algorithms. The results also demonstrated that both models could be greatly improved, and resulting trajectories be more accurate, with the use of high resolution near-shore digital bathymetry and more accurate wind and tidal constituents. (AMSA 2003).
Figure 13 - Exercise “Ground truth” held in Moreton Bay to test OSTM
Question 28 - Have the OSTM tidal predictions been tested against actual measured tides?
Yes. One of the most important tests to evaluate a hydrodynamic model is a comparison between its predictions of sea surface heights and the actual measured sea level recorded by tidal gauges in an area of interest.
In a study carried out by APASA in 2004, eighteen sites around the Australian coast were selected for comparisons of the HYDROMAP predictions and tide gauge measurements. (APASA 2004) The average correlation (R2) between the model and the tidal data was 91.89%. Two main oil spill high risk areas, Brisbane, QLD (Brisbane Bar) and Sydney Harbour, NSW, were 99.46% and 99.00% respectively.
Question 29 - What future developments or changes are planned for OSTM?
Within financial considerations AMSA is committed to ensure the National Plan has effective decision support systems. Continuous upgrades of OSTM data and software have taken place over the past four years as operators have gained experience with the system and deficiencies have been identified. Feedback from National Plan users on the effectiveness of the predictions and information provided by OSTM is encouraged.
AMSA has an on-going activity to monitor international developments in met-ocean modelling systems for marine incident response. Where new systems, software or fundamental data becomes available these will be assessed on a scientific, technical and cost/benefit basis to AMSA and the National Plan.
Question 30 - Where do I go to find out more about the OSTM system?
Contact: Environment Protection Standards, Australian Maritime Safety Authority
3 June 2005
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